Multi-State Recidivism Study

The study had four components. First, it compared the nationally recommended Adam Walsh Act (AWA) classification tiers with actuarial risk assessment instruments (Static-SSR and Static-2002) in their respective abilities to identify high-risk individuals and recidivists. Second, the study evaluated the predictive accuracy of existing State risk-assessment classification schemes. Third, it analyzed the distribution of risk assessment scores within and across tier categories as defined by the AWA. Fourth, the study addressed the role of offender age in recidivism risk across the adult lifespan. The study's findings indicate that the current AWA classification scheme is likely to produce a system that is less effective in protecting the public than the classification systems currently implemented in the States studied. The AWA tier was unrelated to sexual recidivism, except in Florida, where it was inversely associated with recidivism. Actuarial measures and existing State tiering system both showed better predictive validity than AWA tiers. Offender age was found to have a significant protective effect for sexual reoffending, with older offenders showing a decreased risk for sexual r