Modeling Alternative Solutions to the Long-Run Social Security Funding Problem

This paper develops a Social Security simulation model. Combining data from the 1975 Social Security Exact Match File, which merges individual records from the1975 Current Population Survey with OASI earnings and benefit records, with a model of income growth, retirement and labor force participation patterns, life expectancy, age-earnings profiles, etc., we present estimates of a variety of types of information concerning the long-run financial status of the OASI system. Estimates are developed for current legislation and a variety of possible reforms of the aggregate real present value of benefits, taxes and deficit; and expected benefits, taxes and net transfers for different population groups by age and income. Among the more important findings of the first in a series of analyses using the simulation model are the following: 1. Under OASI alone, the long-run deficit amounts to $632 billion in 1977dollars. This is roughly the size of the regular privately held national debt. This occurs primarily because of the impending large increase in the ratio of retirees to workers early in the next century and in spite of already legislated impending large payroll tax increases. 2. The l